Oscar Predictions!!

I know I've been way for a long time. Since I got off Facebook, I haven't had a lot of motivation to post. But the greatness of the Oscars has motivated me out of hiding. 

Daniel’s Official Oscar Predictions, 1/31/2016

All predictions subject to change up until 2/27/2016.

Explanatory thoughts provided where pertinent. 

Best Picture

Who will win: Spotlight

Who should win: Spotlight

This is a close race with Spotlight, Big Short, Mad Max and The Revenant all taking various top prizes from various award shows. But I’ve seen all four of those movies, and Spotlight is the best by quite a wide margin.

Best Actor

Who will win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant 

Who should win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant 

After the SAG win Saturday night, this is almost a lock. I would bet money on this category (but no one would pay any odds because it’s almost a lock).

Best Actress

Who will win: Brie Larson, Room 

Who should win: Brie Larson, Room

Like Best Actor, this is all but a guarantee.

Best Supporting Actor

Who will win: Christian Bale, The Big Short 

Who should win: Tom Hardy, The Revenant

This is a tough one to call with several worthy candidates. I make this pick under the logic that since Big Short didn’t win top prize, The Academy will still want to bestow upon it deserved accolades. I suspect Revenant is in for a disappointing night. A lot of people think Stalone for Creed, but I’m skeptical.

Best Supporting Actress

Who will win: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl 

Who should win: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl 

Best Animated Feature

Who will win: Inside Out 

Who should win: Inside Out

Mixed reviews (and very limited release) for Anomalisa make this easy to call. The best screenplay nomination makes it as close to a sure thing as I can remember.

Best Supporting Actress

Who will win: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl 

Who should win: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl 

Best Cinematography

Who will win: Emmanuel Lubezki, The Revenant  

Who should win: I don’t know.

Another tough call (this one even harder). Lubezki has won the past two years for Gravity and Birdman.

Best Costume Design

Who will win: The Danish Girl 

Who should win: (Probably) The Danish Girl 

I haven’t seen it yet, but this always goes to either a period drama or a Wes Anderson movie.

Best Director

Who will win: Tom McCarthy, Spotlight 

Who should win: George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

This award is nearly always given in conjuncture with Best Picture. However, what Miller did is nothing short of miraculous directing. This will be really close.

Best Documentary

Who will win: Amy 

Best Documentary Short

Who will win: Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah

As someone who unabashedly knows NOTHING about documentary shorts, I’m deferring to the one Internet prediction I could find. (For the record, I did pick this correctly last year; I’m not really sure how I did).

Best Editing

Who will win: Spotlight

Who should win: Mad Max: Fury Road

The Internet is largely leaning The Big Short on this one, but that was before Saturday when Spotlight seized control of the top. This is tough call. Any nominee except for The Force Awakens wouldn’t surprise me at all.

Best Foreign Film

Who will win: Son of Saul

Best Makeup

Who will win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Who should win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Score

Who will win: Ennio Morricone, The Hateful Eight

Who should win: Ennio Morricone, The Hateful Eight

In my mind, this isn’t even a contest. Morricone by a landslide.

Best Song

Who will win: Till it Happens to You, The Hunting Ground

Unlike last year when I knew all the songs, this year I know none of them. This is a majority opinion online.

Best Production Design

Who will win: Eve Stewart, The Danish Girl

She’s been nominated three times before without a win. For this category, that’s really odd. She was nominated for Kings Speech (which obviously should have won), so she appears to be due.

Best Short Film (Animated)

Who will win: Sanjay’s Super Team

Who should win: I don’t know, but I really liked World of Tomorrow

 

Best Short Film (Live)

Who will win: Shok

Best Sound Editing

Who will win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Who should win: Mad Max: Fury Road

This is so hard to call! Revenant is also very deserving. Or the Martian could come out of nowhere and win.

Best Sound Mixing

Who will win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Who should win: Mad Max: Fury Road

This award almost always goes in tandem with Sound Editing. If Revenant wins above, it will win here too.

Best Visual Effects

Who will win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Who should win: Mad Max: Fury Road

I really want Ex Machina to win (assuming Mad Max has won a sufficient number of awards), but it’s not going to happen.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Who will win: The Big Short

Who should win: The Big Short

This might sound crazy, but all the while I watch the Big Short I thought, “This is best adapted screenplay ever.” If it doesn’t win, I will not be happy.

Best Original Screenplay

Who will win: Spotlight

Who should win: Spotlight

I would really love to give this award to Spotlight, Ex Machina and Inside Out, but I can’t do that. Spotlight is the clear best, but it’s HUGE for an animated movie and small-time April release sci-fi flick to get this nomination.

Some final notes:

A lot has been made about the lack of racial diversity in the acting categories, and frankly, it’s crap. Last year they had a strong case with the snubbing of David Oyelowo and Ava Duverney (both from Selma) but this year, they have very little. I will concede that Ildris Elba probably should have been nominated for Supporting Actor BUT (and everyone losing their head forget this), that would mean the Academy acknowledging the legitimacy of Netflix, and they aren’t ready to do that yet.  Despite the lack of racial diversity, the nominations are pretty diverse. Small and big movies alike are in real contention this year. Ex Machina, a tiny April release sci-fi, is given consideration; an animated movie got a screen play nom! (I’m not sure anyone gets how huge that is). A summer blockbuster (Mad Max) is nominated all along the board. It’s a very diverse year, just not racially.

The combination of Spotlight and The Big Short drive home a sobering reality: systemic unethical behavior hurts everyone. Though dealing with different issues, different formats and different angles, these movies make it clear that when the system is corrupt, everyone gets screwed. That made both movies tough to watch, but also extremely necessary to American film. Movies like these remind me why I love movies, especially Oscar movies.

Though not worth a heck of a lot, my favorite movies of 2015 were (in order): Mad Max, Inside Out, Spotlight, The Big Short and the Martian. Hateful Eight deserves an honorable mention; The Revenant was slightly disappointing.

Win or lose Adam McKay had a monster year. In 2015 he veered from his Will Ferrell comedy genre to take on Ant-Man (such a great movie) and The Big Short. Props to you, McKay.