I know I've been way for a long time. Since I got off Facebook, I haven't had a lot of motivation to post. But the greatness of the Oscars has motivated me out of hiding.
Daniel’s Official Oscar Predictions,
1/31/2016
All predictions subject to
change up until 2/27/2016.
Explanatory thoughts
provided where pertinent.
Best Picture
Who will win: Spotlight
Who should win: Spotlight
This is a close race with
Spotlight, Big Short, Mad Max and The Revenant all taking various top prizes
from various award shows. But I’ve seen all four of those movies, and Spotlight
is the best by quite a wide margin.
Best Actor
Who will win: Leonardo
DiCaprio, The Revenant
Who should win: Leonardo
DiCaprio, The Revenant
After the SAG win Saturday
night, this is almost a lock. I would bet money on this category (but no one
would pay any odds because it’s almost a lock).
Best Actress
Who will win: Brie Larson,
Room
Who should win: Brie Larson,
Room
Like Best Actor, this is all
but a guarantee.
Best Supporting Actor
Who will win: Christian
Bale, The Big Short
Who should win: Tom Hardy,
The Revenant
This is a tough one to call
with several worthy candidates. I make this pick under the logic that since Big
Short didn’t win top prize, The Academy will still want to bestow upon it
deserved accolades. I suspect Revenant is in for a disappointing night. A lot
of people think Stalone for Creed, but I’m skeptical.
Best Supporting Actress
Who will win: Alicia
Vikander, The Danish Girl
Who should win: Alicia
Vikander, The Danish Girl
Best Animated Feature
Who will win: Inside
Out
Who should win: Inside Out
Mixed reviews (and very
limited release) for Anomalisa make this easy to call. The best screenplay
nomination makes it as close to a sure thing as I can remember.
Best Supporting Actress
Who will win: Alicia
Vikander, The Danish Girl
Who should win: Alicia
Vikander, The Danish Girl
Best Cinematography
Who will win: Emmanuel
Lubezki, The Revenant
Who should win: I don’t
know.
Another tough call (this one
even harder). Lubezki has won the past two years for Gravity and Birdman.
Best Costume Design
Who will win: The Danish
Girl
Who should win: (Probably)
The Danish Girl
I haven’t seen it yet, but
this always goes to either a period drama or a Wes Anderson movie.
Best Director
Who will win: Tom McCarthy,
Spotlight
Who should win: George
Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
This award is nearly always
given in conjuncture with Best Picture. However, what Miller did is nothing
short of miraculous directing. This will be really close.
Best Documentary
Who will win: Amy
Best Documentary Short
Who will win: Claude Lanzmann:
Spectres of the Shoah
As someone who unabashedly
knows NOTHING about documentary shorts, I’m deferring to the one Internet
prediction I could find. (For the record, I did pick this correctly last year;
I’m not really sure how I did).
Best Editing
Who will win: Spotlight
Who should win: Mad Max:
Fury Road
The Internet is largely
leaning The Big Short on this one, but that was before Saturday when Spotlight
seized control of the top. This is tough call. Any nominee except for The Force
Awakens wouldn’t surprise me at all.
Best Foreign Film
Who will win: Son of Saul
Best Makeup
Who will win: Mad Max: Fury
Road
Who should win: Mad Max:
Fury Road
Best Score
Who will win: Ennio
Morricone, The Hateful Eight
Who should win: Ennio
Morricone, The Hateful Eight
In my mind, this isn’t even
a contest. Morricone by a landslide.
Best Song
Who will win: Till it
Happens to You, The Hunting Ground
Unlike last year when I knew
all the songs, this year I know none of them. This is a majority opinion
online.
Best Production Design
Who will win: Eve Stewart,
The Danish Girl
She’s been nominated three
times before without a win. For this category, that’s really odd. She was
nominated for Kings Speech (which obviously should have won), so she appears to
be due.
Best Short Film (Animated)
Who will win: Sanjay’s Super
Team
Who should win: I don’t
know, but I really liked World of Tomorrow
Best Short Film (Live)
Who will win: Shok
Best Sound Editing
Who will win: Mad Max: Fury
Road
Who should win: Mad Max:
Fury Road
This is so hard to call!
Revenant is also very deserving. Or the Martian could come out of nowhere and
win.
Best Sound Mixing
Who will win: Mad Max: Fury
Road
Who should win: Mad Max:
Fury Road
This award almost always
goes in tandem with Sound Editing. If Revenant wins above, it will win here
too.
Best Visual Effects
Who will win: Mad Max: Fury
Road
Who should win: Mad Max:
Fury Road
I really want Ex Machina to
win (assuming Mad Max has won a sufficient number of awards), but it’s not
going to happen.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Who will win: The Big Short
Who should win: The Big
Short
This might sound crazy, but
all the while I watch the Big Short I thought, “This is best adapted screenplay
ever.” If it doesn’t win, I will not be happy.
Best Original Screenplay
Who will win: Spotlight
Who should win: Spotlight
I would really love to give
this award to Spotlight, Ex Machina and Inside Out, but I can’t do that.
Spotlight is the clear best, but it’s HUGE for an animated movie and small-time
April release sci-fi flick to get this nomination.
Some final notes:
A lot has been made about
the lack of racial diversity in the acting categories, and frankly, it’s crap.
Last year they had a strong case with the snubbing of David Oyelowo and Ava
Duverney (both from Selma) but this year, they have very little. I will concede
that Ildris Elba probably should have been nominated for Supporting Actor BUT
(and everyone losing their head forget this), that would mean the Academy
acknowledging the legitimacy of Netflix, and they aren’t ready to do that
yet. Despite the lack of racial
diversity, the nominations are pretty diverse. Small and big movies alike are
in real contention this year. Ex Machina, a tiny April release sci-fi, is given
consideration; an animated movie got a screen play nom! (I’m not sure anyone
gets how huge that is). A summer blockbuster (Mad Max) is nominated all along
the board. It’s a very diverse year, just not racially.
The combination of Spotlight
and The Big Short drive home a sobering reality: systemic unethical behavior
hurts everyone. Though dealing with different issues, different formats and
different angles, these movies make it clear that when the system is corrupt,
everyone gets screwed. That made both movies tough to watch, but also extremely
necessary to American film. Movies like these remind me why I love movies,
especially Oscar movies.
Though not worth a heck of a
lot, my favorite movies of 2015 were (in order): Mad Max, Inside Out,
Spotlight, The Big Short and the Martian. Hateful Eight deserves an honorable
mention; The Revenant was slightly disappointing.
Win or lose Adam McKay had a
monster year. In 2015 he veered from his Will Ferrell comedy genre to take on
Ant-Man (such a great movie) and The Big Short. Props to you, McKay.